Betting on Zach Wilson's 2022 NFL Player of the Season props ahead of Week 1

Betting on Zach Wilson’s 2022 NFL Player of the Season props ahead of Week 1

Jets quarterback Zach Wilson has gotten all the attention this offseason, but it has more to do with his game off the court than on the gridiron.

And while pro athletes often describe the playing field as their sanctuary, Wilson will face questions about distractions if he fails to take the next step in his progression as an NFL quarterback.

In my AFC East preview, I couldn’t commit to more than a lean for the Jets to surpass their projected win total of 5.5 games.

At the time, my focus was to assess the roster, but today I’ll be focusing on the quarterback position in hopes of better assessing Wilson’s yardage and touchdown props throughout. the season.

Also Read: Jets 2022 Betting Preview

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Under 3500.5 Passing TDs (+112) (FanDuel) – 0.5 units

After throwing for 2,334 yards, Wilson gets a nice bump in his second season with a throw of 3,500.5 yards passing. Based on the 13 games he played last year, Wilson averaged 179.5 yards per game.

However, backup quarterback Mike White had a higher passing average with 238.3 yards per game.

What’s surprising is that Wilson threw the ball downfield more than White. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, Wilson averaged 7.6 planned aerial yards per pass attempt while White averaged 5.9.

Zach Wilson
Zach Wilson
Getty Images

Unfortunately, accuracy was an issue for the Jets’ lottery pick. According to rbsdm.com, Wilson had the worst completion-over-expectation percentage (CPOE) for any quarterback with at least 200 snaps.

The Jets also often trailed in their games, so it’s no surprise that they placed third with a 63.32% success rate.

While I know the New York front office loved Wilson’s 73.5% completion rate in his senior year at BYU, he finished with a 65.9% completion rate and 62, 4% in his previous two seasons.

So, I don’t know if his senior year was more of a fluke, but we’ll know pretty quickly if his accuracy as an NFL-level quarterback has improved in the offseason.

I have to admit, I’m a little worried because I’m basically blowing the market away with Wilson’s passing yards over the top. However, I need to see it with my own eyes first, so I’m going to roll the dice and lay half a unit on the underside.

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Under 20.5 Touchdowns (-112) (FanDuel) – 1 unit

If I play Wilson to get under his passing distance, it’s fair that I also double up with an under on his touchdown prop. Wilson threw for just nine touchdowns last season. Also, in the three games the Jets have won with him as a starter, he’s averaged one touchdown per game.

While we expect New York to be a better team this year, I think the offense will be more balanced as the Jets look to continue developing their sophomore quarterback.

Wilson’s accuracy inside the red zone will no doubt need to improve as he has only thrown one more touchdowns than White (5) despite 32 more pass attempts.

Jets fans are hoping Wilson follows in the footsteps of another young quarterback in the division. In Josh Allen’s second season with the Bills, he increased his completion rate from 52.8% to 58.8%. His passing yards also went from 2,074 to 3,089.

Finally, his touchdown to interception ratio went from 10-12 to 20-9.

However, the Jets are starting from a lower rated power given their four wins in Wilson’s rookie season, compared to six wins in Allen’s freshman year.

Wilson will also have to prove he can stay on the court as his six-foot-two, 214-pound frame is much lighter than Allen, who is listed at six-foot-five, 237 pounds.

I’m not rushing to put Wilson in Allen’s company just yet. So I can only look at the underside of his touchdown accessory.

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