The Belgian economy could grow by 4.9% in 2021 if health measures remain temporary, after contracting by 6.3% in 2020, according to forecasts by the Institute for Economic and Social Research (Ires, UCLouvain) released Thursday. This economic recovery would allow “moderate” job creation despite a slight rise in unemployment.
Although sustained in the third quarter of 2020, the recovery of the Belgian economy was interrupted during the last months of last year under the impact of the containment measures introduced due to the resurgence of Covid-19 contaminations, recalls the Ires.
But the year 2021 has started “under better auspices” despite economic activity still disrupted, with the start of the vaccination campaign, signs of improvement in the international environment and rising household and business confidence.
According to the institute’s forecasts, the Belgian economy grew at a rate of around 1% in the first quarter of this year, but growth should slow down significantly in the second quarter due to the tightening of health measures. If the latter remain temporary and if vaccination accelerates in the coming months, Ires then forecasts a more sustained recovery in the second half of the year to reach growth of 4.9% over the whole of 2021.
According to this scenario, employment would also increase by around 33,000 units in 2021, while the number of job seekers would increase by 7,300 units.
Although sustained in the third quarter of 2020, the recovery of the Belgian economy was interrupted during the last months of last year under the impact of the containment measures introduced due to the resurgence of Covid-19 contaminations, recalls the Ires. But the year 2021 has started “under better auspices” despite economic activity still disrupted, with the start of the vaccination campaign, signs of improvement in the international environment and rising household and business confidence. According to the institute’s forecasts, the Belgian economy grew at a rate of around 1% in the first quarter of this year, but growth should slow down significantly in the second quarter due to the tightening of health measures. If these remain temporary and if vaccination accelerates in the coming months, Ires then forecasts a more sustained recovery in the second half of the year to reach growth of 4.9% for the whole of 2021. According to this scenario , employment should also increase by around 33,000 units in 2021, while the number of job seekers should increase by 7,300 units.
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