Putin, our forced sobriety and the sore question - Economic Policy

Putin, our forced sobriety and the sore question – Economic Policy

Today, the buzzword and is sobriety. Before, in the 70s, we spoke more of “hunting gaspi”, but now “sober” or “sobriety”, it sounds better today.

Of course, we don’t do it out of joy, but to avoid a blackout this winter. And as our politicians keep telling us that the winter will be very harsh, households and businesses are already taking their precautions.

Of course, we all know that this sobriety is a choice that Europe has made collectively in support of the Ukrainian people. Since it must be remembered, there is no gas embargo from Russia, as was the case with oil from Arab countries in the 1970s.

Here, it is Europe that has decided to do without Russian gas and oil. Some, moreover, are beginning to publicly ask themselves whether it is very smart to impoverish our populations and deliberately destroy part of our industry instead of forcing the Russians and Ukrainians to find a solution.

Some answer them that it is shameful to think about it, that to do that amounts to offering Putin through peace what he could not obtain through arms. Others say: “Look, who in the end benefits from this war if it is not the United States? They send us their oil and their gas, they sell us their armaments, and when it is necessary to rebuild Ukraine, it It is clear that it will be the American companies that will win the biggest contracts first.”

This discourse is still in the minority, but has dared to assert itself in public for several weeks. It is legitimate for the simple reason that we are in a democracy and it is healthy to be able to express oneself. But, isn’t this a message that comes too soon? In reality, Putin is counting on European public opinion to achieve his ends. He knows that the winter will be cold in Europe. Besides, look at the history of Russia, it was the Russian cold that prevented the soldiers of Napoleon and then Hitler from getting their hands on Russia. In fact, according to other knowledgeable sources, we just have to be patient. Our sanctions give the impression of not being effective, but that is short term. The ruble is doing well, it’s true, but that’s a nice leg up for our friend Putin who can’t buy anything abroad.

As for its oil, it manages to sell it well, but at a price sold off to the Chinese and the Indians. Putin has recently found himself with most of the major leaders who are not part of the anti-Russian coalition. We saw beautiful photos, hugs, so what? Neither China, nor India, nor Turkey has pledged to help Russia, not a single promise to that effect. Besides, for what interest? China has a $600 billion business with the United States and $300 billion with Europe. Who believes for a moment that China, whose economy is already suffering from the zero COVID policy, will deprive itself of Western markets to please Putin?

And then, we forget, but with the technological sanctions, Russia is deprived of strategic components and software, whether for its servers, its computers, its household appliances, its military vehicles, etc.

Gary Kasparov, the former world chess champion was right to say that Europe through its economic sanctions is sending Russia back to the Stone Age. It’s just a matter of time. And then, let’s be lucid, when the war is going to stop, name the businessman who will still want to trade with Russia? But, it’s also true, as a friend – himself a former businessman – told me – let’s keep in mind that the Russians are our neighbours, the geography will not change. And then, Putin is not eternal. Let’s not confuse his people with him either. One day it will be necessary to understand that Russia must be integrated into Europe. They have everything we lack (minerals, space) and we can offer them what they don’t have in exchange. But that’s for the day after tomorrow.

Of course, we don’t do it out of joy, but to avoid a blackout this winter. And as our politicians keep telling us that the winter will be very harsh, households and businesses are already taking their precautions. Of course, we all know that this sobriety is a choice that Europe has made collectively in support of the Ukrainian people. Since it must be remembered, there is no gas embargo from Russia, as was the case with oil from Arab countries in the 1970s. Here, it was Europe that decided to do without Russian gas and oil. Some, moreover, are beginning to publicly ask themselves whether it is very smart to impoverish our populations and deliberately destroy part of our industry instead of forcing the Russians and Ukrainians to find a solution. Some answer them that it is shameful to think about it, that to do that amounts to offering Putin through peace what he could not obtain through arms. Others say: “Look, who in the end benefits from this war if it is not the United States? They send us their oil and their gas, they sell us their armaments, and when it is necessary to rebuild Ukraine, it It is clear that it will first be the American companies that will win the biggest contracts.” This speech is still in the minority, but has dared to assert itself in public for a few weeks. It is legitimate for the simple reason that we are in a democracy and it is healthy to be able to express oneself. But, isn’t this a message that comes too soon? In reality, Putin is counting on European public opinion to achieve his ends. He knows that the winter will be cold in Europe. Besides, look at the history of Russia, it was the Russian cold that prevented the soldiers of Napoleon and then Hitler from getting their hands on Russia. In fact, according to other knowledgeable sources, we just have to be patient. Our sanctions give the impression of not being effective, but that is short term. The ruble is doing well, it’s true, but that’s a nice leg up for our friend Putin who can’t buy anything abroad. As for its oil, it manages to sell it well, but at a price sold off to the Chinese and the Indians. Putin has recently found himself with most of the major leaders who are not part of the anti-Russian coalition. We saw beautiful photos, hugs, so what? Neither China, nor India, nor Turkey has pledged to help Russia, not a single promise to that effect. Besides, for what interest? China has a $600 billion business with the United States and $300 billion with Europe. Who believes for a moment that China, whose economy is already suffering from the zero COVID policy, will deprive itself of Western markets to please Putin? And then, we forget, but with the technological sanctions, Russia is deprived of strategic components and software, whether for its servers, its computers, its household appliances, its military vehicles, etc. Gary Kasparov, the former world chess champion was right to say that Europe through its economic sanctions is sending Russia back to the Stone Age. It’s just a matter of time. And then, let’s be lucid, when the war is going to stop, name the businessman who will still want to trade with Russia? But, it’s also true, as a friend – himself a former businessman – told me – let’s keep in mind that the Russians are our neighbours, the geography will not change. And then, Putin is not eternal. Let’s not confuse his people with him either. One day it will be necessary to understand that Russia must be integrated into Europe. They have everything we lack (minerals, space) and we can offer them what they don’t have in exchange. But that’s for the day after tomorrow.

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