Emmanuel Macron still has to climb one last step - Economic Policy

Emmanuel Macron still has to climb one last step – Economic Policy

The bad commentator often tries to extract deep meanings from a simple image. For him, a warm handshake between two heads of state necessarily means a deep friendship between two countries. And the smile of a Prime Minister necessarily means that he is happy with the agreement that has been reached.

In the aftermath of Emmanuel Macron’s election to a second presidential term, we will however focus on the images of the people who gathered last night on the Champ-de-Mars, in front of the Eiffel Tower, to celebrate the victory. . These images did not show a colorful crowd jubilant, as we had seen in other elections: that of Mitterrand in 1981, that of Chirac against Le Pen (father), that of Sarkozy or that of Macron against Le Pen ( girl) in 2017. We mainly saw groups of activists, ministers, trustees, trying to dance with more or less flexibility and enthusiasm on the playlist of a DJ whose YouTube channel had 9 ( nine)subscribers. We wiggled while waiting for the winner’s speech.

The speech, which Emmanuel Macron’s communications team announced was important and promising, was ultimately very agreed: thanks to voters and activists, call for the country to come together, awareness of the president’s responsibility in the face of citizens’ desires, promise to a new project (but which one?). And when the presidential car left the place of the meeting, the streets of Paris, which were swept by the cameras of the paparazzi, seemed very empty.

A clear winner

These images show the difficulty with which the new French President is now confronted. He won, largely, against Marine Le Pen, winning nearly 59% of the vote. But he didn’t take the crowds away. With an abstention which reached 28%, Emmanuel Macron was only elected with 48% of the voters…

The National Rally, beaten, wins 2.7 million votes compared to the 10 million won five years ago, or 7% more than in 2017, when Marine Le Pen’s score in the second round was only 33.9%. The gap between the extreme right and the camp of the outgoing president has been reduced by half. The nationalist-populist current is now well established in the French political landscape.

Often, it is said in France that the newly elected President benefits from a hundred days of grace. A moment that allows his camp to easily win the legislative elections that come shortly after and therefore to have a majority capable of carrying out his policy. Many commentators in France seem to gratify Emmanuel Macron with the same dynamic. But we allow ourselves not to be so sure.

We rarely saw yesterday, at the end of the ballot, such combative beaten and really ready to fight to win this third legislative half-time which will take place on June 12 and 19. Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon sound the rallying call, resume contact with competing parties yesterday, but perhaps potential allies tomorrow. We are actively discussing alliances. Éric Zemmour hits Marine Le Pen who hits the Republicans, some of whom we know would see themselves “breaking the cordon sanitaire” to return to power.

The boss of La France Insoumise Jean-Luc Mélenchon and environmentalists are working on a common platform, and some socialists, like Ségolène Royal, are calling for a vast union of the left around the rebellious leader. The political landscape seems more than ever frozen around three irreconcilable blocs: Macron, the populist right and the extreme left.

French puzzle

Without presidential dynamics, we could have a France that is difficult to govern, without a real majority in parliament, and with great difficulty in forming a government. The French constitution indeed gives President the power to appoint the Prime Minister and to dissolve the assembly. The Prime Minister has the power to appoint his government, and he “directs its action”. The assembly has the power to overthrow the government. In fact, the Prime Minister appointed by the President has the same color as that which dominates the assembly. But what if there are three reluctant colors to mix and each want to be dominant? It turns into a puzzle.

President Macron could still appoint a prime minister of his own, who himself would constitute his government. But he may not last long, overthrown by the assembly. We could see some deputies from the left or the right finally joining the presidential camp, but it is hypothetical, it may not be enough to build a majority and it is very risky for the elected officials who would turn their backs. Could the president dissolve the assembly and reconvene the voters? But it is a very risky maneuver, which could split the landscape a little more and weaken a presidential party on which the voter would pour his resentment.

The president could, noting the impossibility of governing the country, convene the parliament in congress to modify the constitution and for example, as Emmanuel Macron has often mentioned, impose a greater dose of proportionality in political life. But is France ready to live in a regime proportional to the Belgian, where politics is done by compromise and reversal of alliances and where discussions can be so difficult that one can live without government for 589 days?

In the aftermath of Emmanuel Macron’s election to a second presidential term, we will however focus on the images of the people who gathered last night on the Champ-de-Mars, in front of the Eiffel Tower, to celebrate the victory. . These images did not show a colorful crowd jubilant, as we had seen in other elections: that of Mitterrand in 1981, that of Chirac against Le Pen (father), that of Sarkozy or that of Macron against Le Pen ( girl) in 2017. We mainly saw groups of activists, ministers, trustees, trying to dance with more or less flexibility and enthusiasm on the playlist of a DJ whose YouTube channel had 9 ( nine)subscribers. We swayed while waiting for the winner’s speech. The speech, which Emmanuel Macron’s communications team announced was important and promising, was finally very agreed: thanks to voters and activists, call for the country to come together, awareness of responsibility of the president faced with the desires of the citizens, promise of a new project (but which one?). And when the presidential car left the place of the meeting, the streets of Paris, which were swept by the cameras of the paparazzi, seemed very empty. A winner without a majority These images show the difficulty with which the new French President now finds himself confronted. He won, largely, against Marine Le Pen, winning nearly 59% of the vote. But he didn’t take the crowds away. With an abstention which reached 28%, Emmanuel Macron was elected with only 48% of the voters… The National Rally, defeated, wins 2.7 million votes compared to the 10 million won five years ago , which is 7% more than in 2017, when Marine Le Pen’s score in the second round was only 33.9%. The gap between the extreme right and the camp of the outgoing president has been reduced by half. The nationalist-populist current is now well established in the French political landscape. Often, it is said in France that the newly elected President benefits from a hundred days of grace. A moment that allows his camp to easily win the legislative elections that come shortly after and therefore to have a majority capable of carrying out his policy. Many commentators in France seem to gratify Emmanuel Macron with the same dynamic. But we allow ourselves not to be so sure. We rarely saw yesterday, at the end of the ballot, such combative beaten and really ready to fight to win this third legislative half-time which will take place on 12 and 19 June. Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon sound the rallying call, resume contact with competing parties yesterday, but perhaps potential allies tomorrow. We are actively discussing alliances. Éric Zemmour hits Marine Le Pen who hits the Republicans, some of whom we know would see themselves “breaking the sanitary cordon” to return to power. The boss of La France Insoumise Jean-Luc Mélenchon and environmentalists are working on a common platform, and some socialists, like Ségolène Royal, are calling for a vast union of the left around the rebellious leader. The political landscape seems more than ever frozen around three irreconcilable blocs: Macron, the populist right and the extreme left. French puzzle Without presidential dynamics, we could have a France that is difficult to govern, without a real majority in parliament, and with a very difficulty in forming a government. The French constitution indeed gives President the power to appoint the Prime Minister and to dissolve the assembly. The Prime Minister has the power to appoint his government, and he “directs its action”. The assembly has the power to overthrow the government. In fact, the Prime Minister appointed by the President has the same color as that which dominates the assembly. But what if there are three reluctant colors to mix and each want to be dominant? This turns into a puzzle. President Macron could still appoint a prime minister of his own, who himself would constitute his government. But he may not last long, overthrown by the assembly. We could see some deputies from the left or the right finally joining the presidential camp, but it is hypothetical, it may not be enough to build a majority and it is very risky for the elected officials who would turn their backs. Could the president dissolve the assembly and reconvene the voters? But it is a very risky maneuver, which could split the landscape a little more and weaken a presidential party on which the voter would pour his resentment. The president could, noting the impossibility of governing the country, convene the parliament in congress to modify the constitution and for example, as Emmanuel Macron has often mentioned, to impose a greater dose of proportionality in political life. But is France ready to live in a regime proportional to the Belgian, where politics is done by compromise and reversal of alliances and where discussions can be so difficult that one can live without government for 589 days?

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