Since the appearance of the pandemic more than a year ago, we wonder how the world of tomorrow will be made. Will we see a balance of planetary forces? Many questions require answers.
In other words, the coming decades will be characterized by a mismatch between global challenges and “the ability of institutions and the system to deal with them”. This is what Global Trends 2040 found.
Indeed, note that Global Trends is designed to provide an analytical framework for decision makers at the start of each administration. And this, as they craft a national security strategy and navigate an uncertain future. The goal is not to offer an accurate prediction of the world in 2040. On the contrary, the intention is to help policy makers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon. So that they prepare for a range of possible futures.
Demography, environment, economy and technologies
In this context, one thing is certain, the future world will be centered on demography, the environment, the economy and technology. Because the dynamics of States and the international system indicate that the world of tomorrow will be increasingly unbalanced and contested at all levels. But this trajectory is not fixed.
To better understand how these conditions could evolve differently over the next 20 years, the Global Trends report develops scenarios outlining a range of possible global futures. Three key issues or uncertainties help shape these scenarios.
Thus, three of the scenarios describe futures where international challenges become increasingly severe. More so, the rivalry between the United States and China seems to persevere.
First of all, the first scenario mentions that China would be the first state, but not globally dominant. While, in competitive coexistence, the United States and China prosper and vie for leadership in a divided world.
Towards a more radical change!
On the other hand, the other two scenarios emphasize a more radical change. In this context, the rivalry between the United States and China would be less central. Because both states would be forced to face global challenges. These are larger and more serious.
Which leads to the other scenarios where the report emphasizes permanent populism. This would lead to “reinforcing political dysfunction and increasing the risks of political instability.”
Meanwhile in 2021, in the case of Tunisia, it is not known whether the 12 million inhabitants will be vaccinated. While the absence of political will does not meet the expectations of Tunisians, there is reason to ask questions. While some states are already planning for 2040.