NFL Week 16 betting trends and odds for every team and game

NFL Week 16 betting trends and odds for every team and game

Week 16 sets in with an NFL schedule that looks like a weird world, as 11 NFL games will take place on Christmas Eve Saturday, followed by a triple schedule on NFL Sunday with just three independent games.

The Philadelphia Eagles travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys without their MVP candidate, quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has been officially ruled out with a shoulder injury.

Without Hurts in the team, the odds have risen from 1.5 points for the Cowboys at the start of the week to 6.5 points at some bookmakers. The line is now back between +4 and +4.5 for the Eagles, with Gardner Minshew starting.

The Cowboys and Eagles are both 8-6 ATS this season, but there is a distinct difference between the two teams when it comes to their home and road split this season. Philadelphia is just 2-5 ATS away from Lincoln Financial Field, playing its third straight away game. The Cowboys are 5-3 ATS at home, and 7-1 straight (SU) at AT&T Stadium.

Also, according to TAN’s Evan Abrams, the Eagles are only the 13th team in December or later to be an underdog with a winning percentage over 90%. The bottom 12 teams in a similar situation only have 2-10 SU.

Throughout the article, you’ll find what I believe to be the most notable NFL betting trends for each team in Week 16, highlighting key areas you need to know before placing a bet.

For betting predictions and predictions on every game in Week 16 this Saturday, Sunday and Monday night, check out the BetSided NFL Expert Picks and Predictions page for even more analysis, props, best bets and more again.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24 – CHRISTMAS EVE EARLY AFTERNOON SLATE

Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears Betting Trends and Odds

bills:

Buffalo don’t mess around when it comes to taking care of business against bad teams. Over their last 16 games, the Bills are 11-3-2 ATS against teams with a negative record. What’s more, their defense shows up even more on the road, going 7-0 down in their last seven away games.

Bears:

When Justin Fields plays, OVERs keep hitting for the Bears. Chicago is 7-1 at OVER in their last eight games, with the only UNDER coming in Week 15 at home against the Eagles. Additionally, according to Evan Abrams, the Bears have been the NFL’s lowest-grossing underdogs for the past two years.

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Trends and Odds

lions:

The Lions have the hottest coverage streak in the NFL, winning seven straight ATS games and entering with a 10-4 ATS record. They also haven’t lost to a sub-.500 team this season, despite being just 7-7 SU this year.

Panthers:

Prior to last week’s home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Panthers had covered in four straight games and six of their last seven meetings. However, recent trends indicate they could continue to struggle today, going 4-10 ATS in their last 14 at home, as well as 4-10 in their last 14 after a loss (via Covers).

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns Betting Trends and Odds

Saints:

If New Orleans’ current total drops below 32 points, it would be the lowest closing total since 2008 in the NFL.
New Orleans has been an UNDER team in its last games, going 6-1 UNDER in its last seven games. With forecasts this week in Cleveland calling for winds of 25-30 mph and potential gusts of 40-50 mph, they could be on course for a 7-1 streak in their last eight games.

browns:

The Browns are just 12-20 ATS at home the past four years, but they’ve gone 4-3 ATS at home in 2022. They’ve also been terrible in the first quarterwith 10-4 ATS this year.

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Trends and Odds

Texas:

After losing seven straight games by seven or more points, the Texans covered two straight games against two of the NFL’s top teams in Dallas and against Kansas City. Also, according to Evan Abrams, the teams that faced the Chiefs in their previous game went 10-3 SU in the next game. The line went from 8 points for Tennessee to 3.5 points.

Titans:

After covering eight straight games between Weeks 3 and 10, Tennessee failed to cover in four straight games and went 0-4 SU in those encounters as well.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends and Odds

Seahawks:

Seattle has failed to cover five straight games and, according to Evan Abrams, coach Pete Carroll has lost six straight games when given the rest advantage.

Chiefs:

The Chiefs have hit bottom in four straight home games, and have been among the NFL’s worst teams this year. The Chiefs are 11-3 SU, but just 4-9-1 ATS and just 1-4-1 ATS at home.

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings Betting Trends and Odds

Giants:

New York is 10-4-0 ATS this season, and Daniel Jones is looking to continue his remarkable ATS road splits; covering in 16 of his 23 career road games. The Giants have also done worse than expected in 33 of their 47 games since 2020.

vikings:

In single-point games this season, the Vikings are a perfect 10-0. Additionally, Minnesota has won 13 straight games as a favorite, with their last loss coming on Dec. 5, 2021, to Detroit.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends and Odds

bengals:

Cincinnati continues to be one of the best bets in the NFL, leading the league with a 78.6 percent coverage percentage and an 11-3-0 ATS record.

Patriots:

New England went 4-0 UNDER in their last four games after a loss, and the unders in December hit an 80% clip for the Pats; 8-2 in their last 10 games.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Trends and Odds

Falcons:

After starting the season 6-0 ATS, the Falcons are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games.

Ravens:

The Ravens are just 1-3 ATS after a loss this year, and haven’t covered as a home favorite in five games.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24 – CHRISTMAS EVE LATE AFTERNOON SLATE

Washington Commanders vs San Francisco 49ers Betting Trends and Odds

Commanders:

After starting the season 1-4 ATS, the Commanders until their last two games against the Giants had gone 6-1 ATS. Washington is also 10-1 down in their last 11 after an ATS loss (via Covers).

49ers:

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends and Odds

Eagles:

Gardner Minshew is 10-12 ATS on his career, but only 5-11 as an underdog, including seven straight losses. Philly, via Evan Abrams, was also the lowest-grossing team to bet on the road since 2020; ranging only 8-17 ATS.

Cowboys:

Dallas has bounced back from back-to-back losses this year (and in 2021), going 5-0 ATS after a loss, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss.

The overage has also been recorded in their last four games in December and their four home games (via Covers).

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends and Odds

Raiders:

When the weather outside is abysmal, Derek Carr’s numbers with the Raiders aren’t great. Las Vegas’ signal-caller is 0-6 in games where the temperature is 38 degrees or lower, and hasn’t thrown for more than one touchdown or scored 20 points in any of those six games. (via Scott Kascmar)

Steelers:

Mike Tomlin, though a Steelers coach since 2007, only appeared in six primetime home games as a 3-point favorite or less. In those games, he went 4-2-0 ATS, winning by an average margin of 5.25 points (via BetLabs).

SUNDAY DECEMBER 25 – CHRISTMAS DAY

Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Betting Trends and Odds

Packers:

Aaron Rodgers has only been an underdog 48 times in his career. According to BetLabs, Rodgers is 6-1-0 ATS as a home dog in his career, but only 20-20-1 ATS on the road, 3-3-0 ATS in December, and 6-10-1 ATS in the second half of the season.

Dolphins:

The Dolphins, dating back to last year, are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road (via Covers). They are also 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games.

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams Betting Trends and Odds

Broncos:

Denver continues to be the best underside bet in the NFL, going 11-3-0 for the underside this season. However, in their last two games, the UNDER has hit, and currently sits at its projected low of the year against the Rams in Week 16.

rams:

Recent history favors the underdog (LA) in this particular game, with the underdog 6-0 ATS in their last six games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals Betting Trends and Odds

Buccaneers:

The Bucs continue to have the worst record in the NFL ATS at 3-10-1 on the year. Tom Brady has also been terrible at night games since he’s been in Tampa Bay, going just 2-12 ATS in primetime games.

Cardinals:

Kliff Kingsbury as underdog = good (23-14-2 ATS). Kliff Kingsbury at home = bad (12-19-0 ATS).

Kliff Kingsbury as the underdog at home, midfield: 7-7-0 ATS.

Kliff Kingsbury in December or later: 3-9-0 ATS after a loss.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends and Odds

Chargers:

Justin Herbert is only 13-15-1 ATS as a favorite, but as a road favorite he is 13-9-0 ATS, compared to just 11-2-1 ATS at home. LA is also tied for the second most wins on the road this season with five, behind the Cincinnati Bengals who have won six.

Colts:

The Colts have allowed 93 points in their last two games, including 55 in the 4th quarter alone!

They are 1-1 ATS in those games and still 3-2 ATS with Jeff Saturday as head coach.

Follow all of Ben’s bets in real time HERE!

The odds of the games are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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